NFL Wins Pool Update
Last updated October 19, 2021
Standings
| Rank | Team | Wins | Remaining Games | Win % | Win % Rank | Projected Wins (FPI) | Projected Rank (FPI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Creaser | 14 | 30 | 77.8% | 1 | 33.6 | 1 |
| 2 | Dan Ellenberger | 13 | 30 | 72.2% | 2 | 32.0 | 2 |
| 3 | Nick Boucher | 10 | 31 | 58.8% | 4 | 25.9 | 6 |
| 3 | Andrew Batchelor | 10 | 32 | 62.5% | 3 | 28.0 | 4 |
| 3 | Matt Hogel | 10 | 31 | 58.8% | 4 | 28.7 | 3 |
| 6 | Mike Thorne | 9 | 30 | 50.0% | 6 | 26.6 | 5 |
| 7 | Gavin Gray | 8 | 30 | 44.4% | 7 | 24.6 | 7 |
| 8 | Andrew Moeller | 7 | 30 | 38.9% | 8 | 21.0 | 9 |
| 8 | Luke Phelan | 7 | 30 | 38.9% | 8 | 23.4 | 8 |
| 10 | Karl Loiseau | 5 | 30 | 27.8% | 10 | 20.4 | 10 |
- Projected wins taken from ESPN FPI projections.
Expanded Standings
| Team | Wins |
Projected Wins |
Next Opponent |
Win Probability in Next Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Creaser | ||||
| Dallas Cowboys | 5 | 11.8 | BYE | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5 | 12.7 | CHI | 0.86 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 4 | 9.1 | @BAL | 0.3 |
| Dan Ellenberger | ||||
| Arizona Cardinals | 6 | 13.4 | HOU | 0.93 |
| Tennessee Titans | 4 | 9.9 | KC | 0.31 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 3 | 8.7 | BYE | |
| Andrew Batchelor | ||||
| Baltimore Ravens | 5 | 11.8 | CIN | 0.7 |
| New Orleans Saints | 3 | 9.8 | @SEA | 0.67 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 2 | 6.4 | @MIA | 0.59 |
| Matt Hogel | ||||
| Los Angeles Rams | 5 | 12.2 | DET | 0.9 |
| Carolina Panthers | 3 | 7.8 | @NYG | 0.61 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 2 | 8.7 | IND | 0.62 |
| Nick Boucher | ||||
| Green Bay Packers | 5 | 10.9 | WAS | 0.8 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 4 | 10.4 | BYE | |
| New York Jets | 1 | 4.6 | @NE | 0.27 |
| Mike Thorne | ||||
| Buffalo Bills | 4 | 12.6 | BYE | |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 4 | 9.1 | PHI | 0.61 |
| New York Giants | 1 | 4.9 | CAR | 0.39 |
| Gavin Gray | ||||
| Cleveland Browns | 3 | 8.9 | DEN | 0.61 |
| Denver Broncos | 3 | 8.5 | @CLE | 0.39 |
| New England Patriots | 2 | 7.2 | NYJ | 0.73 |
| Andrew Moeller | ||||
| Chicago Bears | 3 | 7.2 | @TB | 0.14 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 2 | 7.8 | NO | 0.33 |
| Washington | 2 | 6.0 | @GB | 0.2 |
| Luke Phelan | ||||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 3 | 7.9 | BYE | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 2 | 8.0 | @SF | 0.38 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2 | 7.5 | @LVR | 0.39 |
| Karl Loiseau | ||||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 3 | 10.0 | @TEN | 0.69 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 1 | 4.4 | BYE | |
| Miami Dolphins | 1 | 6.0 | ATL | 0.41 |
- Win probability calculated from consensus vegas point spreads
Weekly Head-to-Heads
Leverage measured by:* Circles to the top right are games between people closest to first place
* Bigger circles indicate games that are more likely to be closely contested
Draft Analysis
| Team | Wins |
Draft Spot |
Expected Wins |
Performance vs. Expectation |
Better Choices |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Creaser | |||||
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 1 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 5 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 4 | 27 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Dan Ellenberger | |||||
| Tennessee Titans | 4 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 6 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 3 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Nick Boucher | |||||
| Green Bay Packers | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 4 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| New York Jets | 1 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Batchelor | |||||
| Baltimore Ravens | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| New Orleans Saints | 3 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 2 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Matt Hogel | |||||
| Los Angeles Rams | 5 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 2 | 11 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| Carolina Panthers | 3 | 28 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Mike Thorne | |||||
| Buffalo Bills | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 4 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| New York Giants | 1 | 25 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| Gavin Gray | |||||
| Cleveland Browns | 3 | 10 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| New England Patriots | 2 | 12 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| Denver Broncos | 3 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Andrew Moeller | |||||
| Seattle Seahawks | 2 | 6 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| Washington | 2 | 19 | 3 | -1 | 5 |
| Chicago Bears | 3 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Luke Phelan | |||||
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 3 | 9 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 2 | 14 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Karl Loiseau | |||||
| Kansas City Chiefs | 3 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| Miami Dolphins | 1 | 16 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 1 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Draft Results
